Local Warming and Violent Conflict in North and South Sudan

LICOS Discussion Paper Series, Discussion Paper 335/2013

68 Pages Posted: 1 Jul 2013

See all articles by Margherita Calderone

Margherita Calderone

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) - Department of Development and Security

Jean Francois Maystadt

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Liangzhi You

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: 2013

Abstract

Weather shocks and natural disasters, it has been argued, represent a major threat to national and international security. Our paper contributes to the emerging micro-level strand of the literature on the link between local variations in weather shocks and conflict by focusing on a pixel-level analysis for North and South Sudan at different geographical and time scales between 1997 and 2009. Temperature anomalies are found to strongly affect the risk of conflict. In the future the risk is expected to magnify in a range of 21 to 30 percent under a median scenario, taking into account uncertainties in both the climate projection and the estimate of the response of violence to temperature variations. Extreme temperature shocks are found to strongly affect the likelihood of violence as well, but the predictive power is hindered by substantial uncertainty. Our paper also sheds light on the vulnerability of areas with particular biophysical characteristics or with vulnerable populations.

Suggested Citation

Calderone, Margherita and Maystadt, Jean Francois and You, Liangzhi, Local Warming and Violent Conflict in North and South Sudan (2013). LICOS Discussion Paper Series, Discussion Paper 335/2013, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2287558 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2287558

Margherita Calderone

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) - Department of Development and Security ( email )

Berlin, 10117
Germany

Jean Francois Maystadt (Contact Author)

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

Liangzhi You

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
27
Abstract Views
634
PlumX Metrics