Debt Management in Brazil: Evaluation of the Real Plan and Challenges Ahead

Abstract

In 1994-98, Brazil's domestic debt grew very rapidly while remaining short in maturity. The main policy recommendations for managing this domestic debt situation: maintain a tighter fiscal stance and consider the use of inflation-linked bonds.

Brazil's domestic debt has posed two challenges to policymakers: it has grown very fast and, despite progress, remains extremely short in maturity.

Bevilaqua and Garcia analyze Brazil's experience with domestic public debt management, searching for policy prescriptions for the next few years.

After briefly reviewing the recent history of the country's domestic debt, they decompose the large rise in federal bonded debt in 1995-98, searching for its macroeconomic causes. The main explanations: extremely high interest payments (caused by Brazil's weak fiscal stance and quasi-fixed exchange rate regime) and the accumulation of assets (especially obligations of Brazil's states).

Simulations of the net debt path for the near future underscore the importance of a tighter fiscal stance to prevent the debt-to-GDP ratio from growing further.

The authors' main policy advice is to foster and rely more on inflation - linked bonds - the least harmful way to lengthen debt maturity.

This paper - a product of the Brazil Country Office, Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to assist in better management of Brazil's domestic debt. Contact Suman Bery, email address [e-mail].

JEL Classification: E65, H63