A Projection Method for Public Health and Long-Term Care Expenditures

75 Pages Posted: 11 Jul 2013

See all articles by Christine de la Maisonneuve

Christine de la Maisonneuve

Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) - Economics Department (ECO)

Joaquim Oliveira Martins

OECD; University Paris-Dauphine - PSL

Date Written: July 9, 2013

Abstract

This paper proposes a new set of public health and long-term care expenditure projections until 2060, seven years after a first set of projections was published by the OECD. It disentangles health from long-term care expenditure, as well as the demographic from the non-demographic drivers, and refines the previous methodology, in particular by extending the country coverage. Regarding health care, non-demographic drivers are identified, with an attempt to better understand the residual expenditure growth by determining which share can be explained by the evolution of health prices and technology effects. Concerning LTC, an estimation of the determinants of the number of dependants (people needing help in their daily life activities) is provided. A cost-containment and a cost-pressure scenario are provided, together with sensitivity analysis. On average across OECD countries, total health and long-term care expenditure is projected to increase by 3.3 and 7.7 percentage points of GDP between 2010 and 2060 in the cost-containment and the cost-pressure scenarios respectively. For the BRIICS over the same period, it is projected to increase by 2.8 and 7.3 percentage points of GDP in the cost-containment and the cost-pressure scenarios respectively.

Keywords: Public health expenditures, long-term care expenditures, ageing populations, longevity, demographic and non-demographic effects, projection methods

JEL Classification: H51, I12, J11, J14

Suggested Citation

de la Maisonneuve, Christine and Oliveira Martins, Joaquim, A Projection Method for Public Health and Long-Term Care Expenditures (July 9, 2013). OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 1048, 2013. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2291541 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2291541

Christine De la Maisonneuve (Contact Author)

Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) - Economics Department (ECO) ( email )

2 rue Andre Pascal
Paris Cedex 16, MO 63108
France

Joaquim Oliveira Martins

OECD ( email )

2 Rue André Pascal
75775 Paris Cedex 16
France
+33 1 45 24 88 53 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.oecd.org/cfe

University Paris-Dauphine - PSL ( email )

PARIS
France

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
210
Abstract Views
874
rank
143,261
PlumX Metrics