A Re-Examination of the Super Bowl Stock Market Predictor

21 Pages Posted: 16 Jul 2013

See all articles by Jeffery A. Born

Jeffery A. Born

Northeastern University - Finance and Insurance Area

Yousra Acherqui

Northeastern University - D’Amore-McKim School of Business

Date Written: July 15, 2013

Abstract

Krueger and Kennedy (1990) [KK] were the first to empirically document the remarkable stock market predictive power of the winner of the Super Bowl. The "model" predicts that the stock market would rise when the Super Bowl is won by a team from the old NFL, but would fall if the game was won by a member of the old AFL. This model correctly predicted the direction of five different market indices 20 times in the first 22 games (91% accuracy). An examination of the subsequent 24 games finds the model no longer possess abnormal predictive ability. When we examine the model’s returns earned after the winner of the Super Bowl is known, we find them reduced, especially in the period examined by KK. We also find the ability of the SBPM to predict the direction of subsequent change in the SP500 and the DJIA collapses to virtually zero since the publication of the KK article.

Keywords: Super Bowl, Stock Market, Prediction

JEL Classification: G14

Suggested Citation

Born, Jeffery A. and Acherqui, Yousra, A Re-Examination of the Super Bowl Stock Market Predictor (July 15, 2013). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2294049 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2294049

Jeffery A. Born (Contact Author)

Northeastern University - Finance and Insurance Area ( email )

Boston, MA 02115
United States

Yousra Acherqui

Northeastern University - D’Amore-McKim School of Business ( email )

360 Huntington Ave.
Boston, MA 02115
United States

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