Public Opinion and the State Politics of the Affordable Care Act

30 Pages Posted: 17 Jul 2013  

Ryan T. Moore

Washington University in St. Louis - Department of Political Science

Boris Shor

University of Houston - Department of Political Science

Date Written: July 12, 2013

Abstract

Since the passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, several attempts have been made to block its provisions in the states. Among these, ballot propositions challenging the individual mandate have occurred in five states, with four more scheduled for November 2012. We first provide state-level estimates of public opinion on the ACA since the beginning of 2010, and we show that, consistent with models of partisan resonance, polarization of public opinion is greatest near elections that politicize health care. We then use synthetic control methods to estimate the causal effects of the high-profile public campaigns surrounding these proposition elections, finding these effects to be conditioned by the broader political context of the campaign. In Ohio, where the campaign took place without simultaneous major candidate elections, we find effects on opinion of about seven percentage points. These effects are fairly short-lived, persisting a few months.

Keywords: public opinion, health policy, ACA, elections, direct democracy, state politics

Suggested Citation

Moore, Ryan T. and Shor, Boris, Public Opinion and the State Politics of the Affordable Care Act (July 12, 2013). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2294130 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2294130

Ryan T. Moore

Washington University in St. Louis - Department of Political Science ( email )

Campus Box 1133
One Brookings Drive
Saint Louis, MO 63130-4899
United States

HOME PAGE: http://rtm.wustl.edu/

Boris Shor (Contact Author)

University of Houston - Department of Political Science ( email )

Houston, TX 77204-3011
United States

Paper statistics

Downloads
126
Rank
185,884
Abstract Views
575