Download this Paper Open PDF in Browser

Using Forum and Search Data for Sales Prediction of High-Involvement Products

Tomer Geva, Gal Oestreicher-Singer, Niv Efron, Yair Shimshoni. "Using Forum and Search Data for Sales Prediction of High-Involvement Products" - MIS Quarterly, Forthcoming

49 Pages Posted: 18 Jul 2013 Last revised: 9 Dec 2015

Tomer Geva

Tel Aviv University

Gal Oestreicher-Singer

Tel Aviv University - Coller School of Management

Niv Efron

Government of the State of Israel

Yair Shimshoni

Government of the State of Israel

Date Written: November 25, 2015

Abstract

A large body of research uses data from social media websites to predict offline economic outcomes such as sales. However, recent research also points out that such data may be subject to various limitations and biases that may hurt predictive accuracy. At the same time, a growing body of research shows that a new source of online information — search engine logs — has the potential to predict offline outcomes. We study the relationship between these two important data sources in the context of sales predictions. Focusing on the automotive industry — a classic example of a domain of high-involvement products — we use Google’s comprehensive index of internet discussion forums, in addition to Google search trend data. We find that adding search trend data to models based on the more commonly-used social media data significantly improves predictive accuracy. We also find that predictive models based on inexpensive search trend data provide predictive accuracy that is comparable, at least, to that of social media data-based predictive models. Last, we show that the improvement in accuracy is considerably larger for “value” car brands, while for “premium” car brands the improvement obtained is more moderate.

Keywords: search trends, forums, word-of-mouth, consumers' interest, sales prediction, online data

Suggested Citation

Geva, Tomer and Oestreicher-Singer, Gal and Efron, Niv and Shimshoni, Yair, Using Forum and Search Data for Sales Prediction of High-Involvement Products (November 25, 2015). Tomer Geva, Gal Oestreicher-Singer, Niv Efron, Yair Shimshoni. "Using Forum and Search Data for Sales Prediction of High-Involvement Products" - MIS Quarterly, Forthcoming . Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2294609 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2294609

Tomer Geva (Contact Author)

Tel Aviv University ( email )

Ramat Aviv
Tel-Aviv, 6997801
Israel

Gal Oestreicher-Singer

Tel Aviv University - Coller School of Management ( email )

Tel Aviv
Israel

Niv Efron

Government of the State of Israel ( email )

Israel

Yair Shimshoni

Government of the State of Israel ( email )

Israel

Paper statistics

Downloads
318
Rank
78,342
Abstract Views
1,036