Gender ‘Rebalancing’ in China: A Global-Level Analysis

Golley, J. and R. Tyers (2012). “Gender ‘Rebalancing’ in China: A Global-Level Analysis”, CAMA Working Paper 46/2012

28 Pages Posted: 17 Jul 2013

See all articles by Jane Golley

Jane Golley

Australian National University (ANU) - Faculty of Economics & Commerce; Australian National University (ANU) - Crawford School of Public Policy

Rod Tyers

Australian National University (ANU) - School of Economics; The University of Western Australia - Department of Economics

Date Written: November 1, 2012

Abstract

The rise in China’s sex ratio at birth during the last two decades has had a wide range of economic and social consequences including excessive savings as families with boys compete to match their sons with scarce girls and rising disaffection and crime amongst the unmarried male population. These consequences are analysed using a global dynamic model that projects demographic behaviour and economic performance through to 2030. The results show that the proportion of unmatched unskilled Chinese men of reproductive age could be as high as one in four by that time, unless effective policies are put in place to rebalance the sex ratio at birth. Even then, it will take decades to reduce the sex ratio in the general population. This will come at a cost in terms of economic growth via the impact on reduced savings, although a lower saving rate offers some rebalancing on a global scale. Moreover, the results suggest that more than offsetting gains could accrue from productivity improvements stemming from reduced crime.

Keywords: China, Growth, Demography, Sex ratio, Imbalance

JEL Classification: D58, J11, J13, J16, J21

Suggested Citation

Golley, Jane and Tyers, Rod, Gender ‘Rebalancing’ in China: A Global-Level Analysis (November 1, 2012). Golley, J. and R. Tyers (2012). “Gender ‘Rebalancing’ in China: A Global-Level Analysis”, CAMA Working Paper 46/2012, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2294786 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2294786

Jane Golley

Australian National University (ANU) - Faculty of Economics & Commerce ( email )

Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601
Australia

Australian National University (ANU) - Crawford School of Public Policy

ANU College of Asia and the Pacific
J.G. Crawford Building, #132, Lennox Crossing
Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200
Australia

Rod Tyers (Contact Author)

Australian National University (ANU) - School of Economics ( email )

Arndt Building
Australian National University
Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200
Australia
61-6-249-5124 (Fax)

The University of Western Australia - Department of Economics ( email )

35 Stirling Highway
Crawley, Western Australia 6009
Australia
61 8 6488 5632 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.business.uwa.edu.au/school/staff-profiles?type=profile&dn=cn%3DRodney%20Tyers%2Cou%3DEcon

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