Uncertainty and Investment: Some Evidence from the Panel Data of Japanese Manufacturing Firms

Abstract

We analyse empirically the effect of uncertainty on fixed investment based on a panel data set of Japanese manufacturing firms. The uncertainty measure, represented by the conditional standard deviation of the sales growth rate, is constructed by employing three different statistical models. We also decompose the demand uncertainty into aggregate, industry-wide, and firm-specific forms of uncertainty. We find that uncertainty, in particular aggregate and industry-wide uncertainty, exerts a significantly negative effect on investment irrespective of the statistical methods chosen. We also find that this negative relationship between investment and uncertainty is closely related to the degree of irreversibility of capital.

JEL Classification: D92