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Conditional Betas and Investor Uncertainty

43 Pages Posted: 24 Jul 2013  

Fernando Chague

Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics

Date Written: April 15, 2013

Abstract

We derive theoretical expressions for market betas from a rational expectation equilibrium model where the representative investor does not observe if the economy is in a recession or an expansion. Market betas in this economy are time-varying and related to investor uncertainty about the state of the economy. The dynamics of betas will also vary across assets according to the assets' cash-flow structure. In a calibration exercise, we show that value and growth firms have cash-flow structures that imply an opposing beta dynamics that goes in the direction of solving the value premium puzzle. During high uncertainty periods, value betas are higher while growth betas are lower. We estimate conditional betas empirically using proxies for investor uncertainty and show support of the model's prediction about the dynamics of growth and value betas.

Keywords: Conditional CAPM, Conditional Betas, Uncertainty

JEL Classification: G12, E32, D80

Suggested Citation

Chague, Fernando, Conditional Betas and Investor Uncertainty (April 15, 2013). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2297298 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2297298

Fernando Chague (Contact Author)

Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics ( email )

Rua Itapeva 474 s.1202
São Paulo, São Paulo 01332-000
Brazil

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