Seasonal Prediction System at CMCC

18 Pages Posted: 26 Nov 2014

See all articles by Andrea Borrelli

Andrea Borrelli

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

Stefano Materia

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

Alessio Bellucci

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

Andrea Alessandri

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

Silvio Gualdi

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)

Date Written: September 1, 2012

Abstract

This document describes the structure of the CMCC Seasonal Prediction System (hereafter CMCC-SPS) developed at CMCC, the various initialization methods and the experiments performed with the most recent version. The CMCC-SPS has been used to perform the CliPAS (Climate Prediction and its Applications to Society) ISO (Intra-Seasonal Oscillation) hindcasts experiments. This report is focused on the current CMCC-SPS version that includes an atmospheric off-line initialization tool, other than the ocean initial state which had been initiailized in the first version. A set of retrospective forecasts was performed for the period 1989-2010. Every year, the model is restarted four times with re-analysis initial conditions, and then integrated for 6 months. Here we provide some preliminary results from this forecasting experiment.

Suggested Citation

Borrelli, Andrea and Materia, Stefano and Bellucci, Alessio and Alessandri, Andrea and Gualdi, Silvio, Seasonal Prediction System at CMCC (September 1, 2012). CMCC Research Paper No. 147, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2298657 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2298657

Andrea Borrelli (Contact Author)

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici ( email )

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

Stefano Materia

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici ( email )

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

Alessio Bellucci

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici ( email )

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

Andrea Alessandri

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici ( email )

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

Silvio Gualdi

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici ( email )

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) ( email )

viale Aldo Moro 44
Bologna, 40127
Italy

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