Spatial, Temporal and Spatio-Temporal Clustering of Democracy and Autocracy
34 Pages Posted: 22 Aug 2013
Date Written: 2013
Democracy, or regime type in general, clusters: there are clear temporal and spatial patterns visible in the spread of democracy across the world. Transitions to democracy and autocracy cannot be seen in isolation and spatial interdependence has to be taken into account. These statements are well established in the empirical literature on democratization. This article highlights the conceptual distinction between spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal forms of clustering. Multivariate empirical analyses demonstrate that different clustering patterns, at different lag specifications, apply to a different extent to transitions to democracy and transitions to autocracy.
Keywords: diffusion, democratization, spatial autocorrelation, spatial regression
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