Democratization’s Heterogeneous Effects on Child Mortality: A Longitudinal Analysis of New Data, for 181 countries, 1970-2009

55 Pages Posted: 17 Jul 2014 Last revised: 10 Dec 2017

Antonio Ramos

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA); California Center for Population Research

José Martiniano Flores

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)

Date Written: December 8, 2017

Abstract

Current empirical literature on the effects of democracy on child mortality remains inconclusive; some studies show strong beneficial effects while others do not. We revisit this debate using a new statistical approach that explicitly distinguishes several types of effects that were combined in previous studies and a new complete data set. We find that while the average effect of democratization is negligible, there is a substantial amount of between-country variation in its effects. In some Sub-Saharan African countries democracy has long-term beneficial effects on child mortality, while in many Latin American countries the effect of democracy is neutral or even deleterious. Moreover, in some former communist countries the introduction of democracy leads to short term deleterious effects followed by beneficial long term effects.

Keywords: Comparative Politics: Developing Countries; Health Politics; Bayesian Hierarchical Models;

Suggested Citation

Ramos, Antonio and Flores, José Martiniano, Democratization’s Heterogeneous Effects on Child Mortality: A Longitudinal Analysis of New Data, for 181 countries, 1970-2009 (December 8, 2017). APSA 2013 Annual Meeting Paper; American Political Science Association 2013 Annual Meeting. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2302001

Antonio Ramos (Contact Author)

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) ( email )

405 Hilgard Avenue
Box 951361
Los Angeles, CA 90095
United States

California Center for Population Research ( email )

Los Angeles, CA
United States

José Martiniano Flores

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) ( email )

405 Hilgard Avenue
Box 951361
Los Angeles, CA 90095
United States

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