Capital riesgo: indicios de una cuarta oleada (Private Equity: Ripples of a Fourth Wave)

Revista de Antiguos Alumnos IESE Nro. 130

4 Pages Posted: 30 Jul 2013 Last revised: 30 Oct 2013

See all articles by Marian W. Moszoro

Marian W. Moszoro

Warsaw School of Economics (SGH); International Monetary Fund (IMF); George Mason University - Department of Economics; George Mason University - Interdisciplinary Center for Economic Science (ICES)

Author

Date Written: July 1, 2013

Abstract

English version available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2302210

La relativamente joven historia de la industria del capital riesgo (private equity, PE) ha sido marcada hasta hoy por tres claros ciclos de expansión de transacciones ("olas"), seguidas por años de receso. Luego del período más largo de receso causado por la crisis mundial financiera, la industria del capital riesgo parece vigorizarse nuevamente, al menos en los Estados Unidos. Desde el comienzo de 2013, varias transacciones importantes respaldadas por capital riesgo han sido anunciadas. Primero, la expansión monetaria cuantitativa encuentra su camino a los mercados de deuda llevada por la compra agresiva global de bonos por los bancos centrales. Dado el entorno de tasas de interés bajas record, los inversores anhelan una nueva ola de compras apalancadas (leveraged buy-out, LBO) que ayudaría a satisfacer sus demanda de rentabilidades más altas. Adicionalmente, los socios gerentes de los fondos de capital riesgo (GPs) son compradores y vendedores intencionados. Por una parte, los fondos de capital riesgo han acumulado alrededor de un trillón de dólares en caja disponible ("dry powder") en los años antes de la crisis, pero no han podido invertirlo, volviéndose inquietos por poner ese dinero a trabajar. Por otra parte, aquellos fondos que sí han invertido han acumulado activos maduros que ansían desinvertir. Finalmente, es muy probable que el mercado de transacciones de capital riesgo de Europa y Estados Unidos se vea fortalecido por capital de otras partes del mundo, en especial de China y Japón.

The relatively young history of the private equity (PE) industry has been marked to-date by three distinct cycles of booming deal activity ("waves") followed by bust years. After the longest bust period caused by the global financial crisis, the PE industry is invigorating anew, at least in the U.S. Since the beginning of 2013, a number of large PE-backed transactions have been announced. Several trends fuel the apparent fourth wave of PE activity. First of all, quantitative easing is finding its way into the debt markets on the back of aggressive central bank bond-buying globally. Given the environment of record-low interest rates, investors hungry for yield yearn for a new LBO wave that would help satisfy their demand for higher returns. Additionally, the GPs themselves are both motivated buyers and sellers. On one hand, they accumulated about $1 trillion of "dry powder" in the years leading to the crisis, yet have not been able to deploy all that capital, becoming more desperate to put money to work. On the other hand, those who did make investments sit on a backlog of aging assets and are eager to divest them. Finally, there is a chance that the deal market in Europe and in the U.S. will also be invigorated by capital from other parts of the globe, in particular from China and Japan.

Note: Downloadable document is in Spanish.

Keywords: Ciclos económicos, capital riesgo, adquisiciones, fusiones

JEL Classification: E32, G24, G34

Suggested Citation

Moszoro, Marian W. and A, A, Capital riesgo: indicios de una cuarta oleada (Private Equity: Ripples of a Fourth Wave) (July 1, 2013). Revista de Antiguos Alumnos IESE Nro. 130, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2302212

Marian W. Moszoro (Contact Author)

Warsaw School of Economics (SGH) ( email )

aleja Niepodleglosci 162
PL-Warsaw, 02-554
Poland

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

George Mason University - Department of Economics ( email )

4400 University Drive
Fairfax, VA 22030
United States

HOME PAGE: http://economics.gmu.edu/people/mmoszoro

George Mason University - Interdisciplinary Center for Economic Science (ICES) ( email )

400P Truland Building
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030
United States

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