Programas De Pensiones No Contributivas Y Su Viabilidad Financiera: El Caso De México (Noncontributory Pension Programs and Their Financial Viability: The Mexican Case)

28 Pages Posted: 2 Aug 2013

See all articles by Emma Aguila

Emma Aguila

RAND Corporation; University of Southern California - Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics

Nelly Mejia

RAND Corporation - Labor and Population

Francisco Pérez-Arce

Center for Economic and Social Research (CESR)

Alfonso Rivera

RAND Corporation - Labor and Population

Date Written: May 15, 2013

Abstract

El envejecimiento es un fenómeno mundial con implicaciones en diversos rubros y del cual México no está exento. Este estudio analiza la sostenibilidad financiera del programa federal de pensión no contributiva de atención a adultos mayores en México. La expansión del programa -- con la finalidad de cubrir a una mayor cantidad de localidades y población -- tiene el objetivo de disminuir la vulnerabilidad de los adultos mayores, sin embargo, esto puede representar un reto en términos del costo fiscal. Utilizando proyecciones de población para las próximas décadas se calculan diversos escenarios para determinar los costos del programa. Se estima también la cantidad de población sin cobertura de seguridad social y los costos de otorgar una pensión no contributiva en las próximas décadas. Los resultados muestran los importantes incrementos en el costo del programa en el corto, mediano y largo plazos.

This paper analyzes the financial sustainability of the non-contributory pension program for older persons in Mexico. The expansion of the program, with the aim of covering a larger number of localities and beneficiaries, focuses on diminishing the vulnerability of the older population. However, this expansion represents a challenge in terms of the fiscal cost of the program. Using population projections for the next decades, it calculates different scenarios to determine the costs of the program. It also estimates the amount of population without social security coverage, and the costs of providing a non-contributory pension in the next decades. The results indicate large increases in the cost of the program, in the short, medium and long terms.

Note: Downloadable document is in Spanish.

Keywords: Mexico, aging, non-contributory pensions, retirement, older population

JEL Classification: H55, J26, C13

Suggested Citation

Aguila, Emma and Mejia, Nelly and Perez-Arce, Francisco and Rivera, Alfonso, Programas De Pensiones No Contributivas Y Su Viabilidad Financiera: El Caso De México (Noncontributory Pension Programs and Their Financial Viability: The Mexican Case) (May 15, 2013). RAND Working Paper Series WR- 999, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2302896 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2302896

Emma Aguila (Contact Author)

RAND Corporation ( email )

1776 Main Street
P.O. Box 2138
Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138
United States

University of Southern California - Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics ( email )

635 Downey Way
Los Angeles, CA 90089-3333
United States

Nelly Mejia

RAND Corporation - Labor and Population ( email )

United States

Francisco Perez-Arce

Center for Economic and Social Research (CESR) ( email )

635 Downey Way
Los Angeles, CA 90089-3332
United States

Alfonso Rivera

RAND Corporation - Labor and Population ( email )

United States

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