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A Multimodel Ensemble for Forecasting Onsets of State-Sponsored Mass Killing

23 Pages Posted: 5 Aug 2013  

Jay Ulfelder

Independent

Date Written: 2013

Abstract

This paper describes the development of a multimodel ensemble that is designed to estimate annually for every country worldwide with a population larger than half a million the risk of an onset of state-sponsored mass killing. Prior applications of statistical methods to the problem of early warning on mass atrocities have sought to develop a single best model for forecasting, and they usually have attempted to test hypotheses about the causes of mass atrocities as they go. By contrast, the research described in this paper focuses exclusively on the problem of forecasting, and the solution we have adopted involves an ensemble approach that averages predictions from several models. Over time, this ensemble should produce more accurate predictions than any single statistical model or expert forecaster would, and it lays a foundation for further learning by leaving the door open to incorporating probabilistic forecasts from new models and other sources as they are developed.

Keywords: genocide, atrocities, forecasting

Suggested Citation

Ulfelder, Jay, A Multimodel Ensemble for Forecasting Onsets of State-Sponsored Mass Killing (2013). APSA 2013 Annual Meeting Paper; American Political Science Association 2013 Annual Meeting. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2303048

Jay Ulfelder (Contact Author)

Independent ( email )

No Address Available

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