Expert Judgment in Forecasting American Presidential Elections: A Preliminary Evaluation

18 Pages Posted: 8 Sep 2013

See all articles by Randall J. Jones

Randall J. Jones

University of Central Oklahoma

Alfred G. Cuzan

University of West Florida

Date Written: 2013

Abstract

This paper reports the experience of the Pollyvote team in conducting surveys of prominent specialists in American politics for the purpose of producing expert forecasts of the 2004, 2008, and 2012 presidential elections. Included are a description of the survey methods used, results of the three series of surveys, and comparisons of the experts’ composite forecasts with predictions from other methods that also comprise the Pollyvote combined forecasts.

Keywords: presidential elections forecasting expert judgment

JEL Classification: C5, D7

Suggested Citation

Jones, Randall J. and Cuzan, Alfred G., Expert Judgment in Forecasting American Presidential Elections: A Preliminary Evaluation (2013). APSA 2013 Annual Meeting Paper; American Political Science Association 2013 Annual Meeting. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2303052

Randall J. Jones (Contact Author)

University of Central Oklahoma ( email )

100 North University Drive
Edmond, OK 73034
United States

Alfred G. Cuzan

University of West Florida ( email )

11000 University Parkway
Pensacola, FL 32514-5750
United States

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