Download This PaperExpert Judgment in Forecasting American Presidential Elections: A Preliminary Evaluation
18 Pages Posted: 8 Sep 2013
Date Written: 2013
Abstract
This paper reports the experience of the Pollyvote team in conducting surveys of prominent specialists in American politics for the purpose of producing expert forecasts of the 2004, 2008, and 2012 presidential elections. Included are a description of the survey methods used, results of the three series of surveys, and comparisons of the experts’ composite forecasts with predictions from other methods that also comprise the Pollyvote combined forecasts.
Keywords: presidential elections forecasting expert judgment
JEL Classification: C5, D7
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Jones, Randall J. and Cuzan, Alfred G., Expert Judgment in Forecasting American Presidential Elections: A Preliminary Evaluation (2013). APSA 2013 Annual Meeting Paper, American Political Science Association 2013 Annual Meeting, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2303052
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