Do College Entrance Examination Scores Predict Undergraduate GPAs? A Tale of Two Universities

38 Pages Posted: 1 Aug 2013

See all articles by Chong-En Bai

Chong-En Bai

Tsinghua University - School of Economics & Management

Wei Chi

Tsinghua University

Xiaoye Qian

Sichuan University - Business School

Date Written: July 31, 2013

Abstract

Each year, millions of Chinese high school students sit the National College Entrance Examination (CEE). For the majority of students, the CEE score is the single determinant in whether they gain admission into a college and to what college they enter. The purpose of this paper is to determine whether and how well the CEE score predicts college academic success. We also consider high school achievement and admission route in predicting college grades. We obtain administrative data on CEE and undergraduate GPAs from two Chinese universities with very different rankings. We find that, for both universities the CEE total score predicts undergraduate GPAs for all four years in college. Even the size of the estimates for CEE is similar for the two universities. High school achievement and admission routes are also significant predictors of college grades. However, we do not find consistent results as to which CEE subject test scores predict students’ academic performance in college.

Keywords: Undergraduate GPA, College Entrance Examination, High School Achievement, Admission Route

JEL Classification: I21, I23

Suggested Citation

Bai, Chong-En and Chi, Wei and Qian, Xiaoye, Do College Entrance Examination Scores Predict Undergraduate GPAs? A Tale of Two Universities (July 31, 2013). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2304089 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2304089

Chong-En Bai

Tsinghua University - School of Economics & Management ( email )

Beijing, 100084
China

Wei Chi (Contact Author)

Tsinghua University ( email )

Haidian District
Beijing, Beijing 100084
China

Xiaoye Qian

Sichuan University - Business School ( email )

China

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