Can We Predict Long-Term Future Crime Rates?

International J. of Society Systems Science (2016) Vol. 8, No. 3

56 Pages Posted: 8 Aug 2013 Last revised: 29 Jul 2017

See all articles by Yu Sang Chang

Yu Sang Chang

Gachon University - College of Business and Economics

Changyong Choi

KDI School of Public Policy and Management

Date Written: August 8, 2013

Abstract

Can we predict long-term crime rates? In this paper, we offer the use of simple experience curve models as an alternative forecasting method. We use the experience curve models to project total crime and violent crime rates in 2030 for 50 individual states and Washington D.C. in the United States.

Results are encouraging in that projection models developed from historical data for respective states show, in general, high values of R2 over .85. Our projected crime rates show both increasing trends as well as declining trends compared to 2010. A large variation among individual states is due to highly variable experience curve slopes we estimated across respective states.

Keywords: projection of crime rates, total crime rates, violent crime rates, classical experience curve, kinked experience curves, kinked slope, kinked year

Suggested Citation

Chang, Yu Sang and Choi, Changyong, Can We Predict Long-Term Future Crime Rates? (August 8, 2013). International J. of Society Systems Science (2016) Vol. 8, No. 3, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2307350 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2307350

Yu Sang Chang (Contact Author)

Gachon University - College of Business and Economics ( email )

Korea

Changyong Choi

KDI School of Public Policy and Management ( email )

P.O. Box 184
Seoul, 130-868
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

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