Electoral Competition Under the Threat of Political Unrest

Universitat Pompeu Fabra Working Paper No. 457

40 Pages Posted: 3 Aug 2000

See all articles by Matthew Ellman

Matthew Ellman

Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC); Barcelona Graduate School of Economics (Barcelona GSE)

Leonard Wantchekon

Princeton University

Date Written: August 1999

Abstract

We study elections in which one party (the strong party) controls a source of political unrest; e.g., this party could instigate riots if it lost the election. We show that the strong party is more likely to win the election when there is less information about its ability to cause unrest. This is because when the weak party is better informed, it can more reliably prevent political unrest by implementing a "centrist" policy. When there is uncertainty over the credibility of the threat, "posturing" by the strong party leads to platform divergence.

Keywords: Electoral Competition, Political Unrest, Asymmetric Information, Platform Divergence.

JEL Classification: D72, D82

Suggested Citation

Ellman, Matthew and Wantchekon, Leonard, Electoral Competition Under the Threat of Political Unrest (August 1999). Universitat Pompeu Fabra Working Paper No. 457, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=230870 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.230870

Matthew Ellman (Contact Author)

Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC) ( email )

UAB Campus
IAE-CSIC
E-08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona 08193
Spain
0034935806612 (Phone)

Barcelona Graduate School of Economics (Barcelona GSE) ( email )

Ramon Trias Fargas, 25-27
Barcelona, Barcelona 08005
Spain

Leonard Wantchekon

Princeton University ( email )

22 Chambers Street
Princeton, NJ 08544-0708
United States