Asset Allocation and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Eurozone

45 Pages Posted: 13 Aug 2013

See all articles by Harald Hau

Harald Hau

University of Geneva - Geneva Finance Research Institute (GFRI); Swiss Finance Institute; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Sandy Lai

University of Hong Kong

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: August 2013

Abstract

The eurozone has a single short-term nominal interest rate, but monetary policy conditions measured by either real short-term interest rates or Taylor rule residuals varied substantially across countries in the period from 2003-2010. We use this cross-country variation in the (local) tightness of monetary policy to examine its influence on equity and money market flows. In line with a powerful risk-shifting channel, we find that fund investors in countries with decreased real interest rates shift their portfolio investment out of the money market and into the riskier equity market. A ten-basis-point lower real short-term interest rate is associated with a 0.8% incremental money market outflow and a 1% incremental equity market inflow by local investors relative to asset under management. The latter produces the strongest equity price increase in countries where domestic institutional investors represent a large share of the countries' stock market capitalization.

Keywords: asset price inflation, monetary policy, risk seeking, Taylor rule residuals

JEL Classification: G11, G14, G23

Suggested Citation

Hau, Harald and Lai, Sandy, Asset Allocation and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Eurozone (August 2013). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP9581, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2309227

Harald Hau (Contact Author)

University of Geneva - Geneva Finance Research Institute (GFRI) ( email )

40 Boulevard du Pont d'Arve
Geneva 4, Geneva 1211
Switzerland

Swiss Finance Institute

Switzerland

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

Sandy Lai

University of Hong Kong ( email )

Faculty of Business and Economics
K.K. Leung Building, Pokfulam Road
Hong Kong, Pokfulam HK
Hong Kong

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
0
Abstract Views
508
PlumX Metrics