The Variable Choice Set Logit Model Applied to the 2004 Canadian Election

41 Pages Posted: 16 Aug 2013

See all articles by Maria E. Gallego

Maria E. Gallego

Wilfrid Laurier University

Norman J. Schofield

Washington University in St. Louis

Kevin McAlister

Washington University in St. Louis

Jee Seon Jeon

Washington University in St. Louis

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: August 13, 2013

Abstract

Formal work on the electoral model often suggests that parties should locate at the electoral mean. Recent research has found no evidence of such convergence. In order to explain non-convergence, the stochastic electoral model is extended by including a competence and socio-demographic valance in a country where regional and national parties compete in the election. That is, the model allows voters to face different sets of parties in different regions. We introduce the notion of a convergence coefficient, c for regional and national parties and show that when c is high there is a significant centrifugal tendency acting on parties. An electoral survey of the 2004 election in Canada is used to construct a stochastic electoral model of the election with two regions: Québec and the rest of Canada. The survey allows us to estimate voter positions in the policy space. The variable choice set logit model is used to built a relationship between party position and vote share. We find that in the local Nash equilibrium for the election the two main parties with high competence valence, the Liberals and Conservatives, locate at the national electoral mean and the Bloc Québécois, with the highest competence valence, locates at the Québec electoral mean. The New Democratic Party has a low competence valence but remains at the national mean. The Greens, with lowest competence valence, locate away from the national mean to increase its vote share.

Keywords: stochastic vote model, valence, local Nash equilibrium, convergence coefficient

JEL Classification: H10

Suggested Citation

Gallego, Maria E. and Schofield, Norman J. and McAlister, Kevin and Jeon, Jee Seon, The Variable Choice Set Logit Model Applied to the 2004 Canadian Election (August 13, 2013). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2309621 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2309621

Maria E. Gallego

Wilfrid Laurier University ( email )

75 University Ave W
Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3C5
Canada

Norman J. Schofield (Contact Author)

Washington University in St. Louis ( email )

One Brookings Drive
Campus Box 1208
Saint Louis, MO MO 63104
United States

Kevin McAlister

Washington University in St. Louis ( email )

One Brookings Drive
Campus Box 1208
Saint Louis, MO MO 63130-4899
United States

Jee Seon Jeon

Washington University in St. Louis ( email )

One Brookings Drive
Campus Box 1208
Saint Louis, MO MO 63130-4899
United States

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
28
Abstract Views
828
PlumX Metrics