Determining the Envelope of Emergent Agent Behaviour via Architectural Transformation

Manchester Metropolitan Univ., Centre for Policy Modelling, Report No. 00-73

12 Pages Posted: 2 Jan 2002  

Oswaldo Teran

Manchester Metropolitan University - Centre for Policy Modelling; University of Los Andes, CESIMO

Bruce Edmonds

Manchester Metropolitan University - Centre for Policy Modelling

Steve Wallis

Manchester Metropolitan University - Centre for Policy Modelling

Date Written: May 15, 2000

Abstract

In this paper we propose a methodology to help analyse tendencies in MAS to complement those of simple inspection, Monte Carlo and syntactic proof. We suggest an architecture that allows an exhaustive model-based search of possible system trajectories in significant fragments of a MAS using forward inference. The idea is to identify tendencies, especially emergent tendencies, by automating the search through possible parameterisations of the model and the choices made by the agents. Subsequently, a proof of these tendencies could be attempted over all possible conditions using syntactic proof procedures. Additionally, we propose a computational procedure to help implement this. The strategy consists of: unencapsulating the MAS so as to reveal the maximum information about logical dependencies in the system. This information is maximised by splitting the transition rules by time intervals and some parameters. An example applying this procedure is exhibited which "compiles" the rules into this form. In the example the exploration of possibilities is speeded up by a factor of 14. This makes possible the complete exploration of model behaviour over a range of parameterisations and agent choices.

Keywords: Social simulation, multi-agent systems, model, proof, emergence, tendencies

JEL Classification: D00

Suggested Citation

Teran, Oswaldo and Edmonds, Bruce and Wallis, Steve, Determining the Envelope of Emergent Agent Behaviour via Architectural Transformation (May 15, 2000). Manchester Metropolitan Univ., Centre for Policy Modelling, Report No. 00-73. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=231758 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.231758

Oswaldo Teran (Contact Author)

University of Los Andes, CESIMO ( email )

Facultad de Ingenieria
Merida
Venezuela
+ 58 274 2402879 (Phone)

Manchester Metropolitan University - Centre for Policy Modelling ( email )

Aytoun Building
Aytoun Street
Manchester, M1 3GH
United Kingdom
+44 20 161 247 6478 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.cpm.mmu.ac.uk/~oswaldo/

Bruce Edmonds

Manchester Metropolitan University - Centre for Policy Modelling ( email )

Aytoun Building
Aytoun Street
Manchester, M1 3GH
United Kingdom
(+44 161) 247 6479 (Phone)
(+44 161) 247 6802 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.cpm.mmu.ac.uk~bruce/

Steve Wallis

Manchester Metropolitan University - Centre for Policy Modelling ( email )

Aytoun Building
Aytoun Street
Manchester, M1 3GH
United Kingdom

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