Limiting Fiscal Procyclicality: Evidence from Resource-Rich Countries
51 Pages Posted: 10 Sep 2013 Last revised: 14 Jan 2014
Date Written: January 5, 2014
We provide evidence that fiscal policy in resource-rich countries is strongly procyclical. The empirical analysis reveals that on average real government consumption in these countries tends to significantly rise (fall) in good (bad) times. To control for endogeneity we use an instrumental variable for GDP growth that arises naturally, namely the growth in commodity prices of the main natural resource export. We also find that fiscal policy procyclicality is lower in more democratic regimes, and that operating a sovereign wealth fund is more successful in limiting fiscal policy procyclicality than introducing fiscal rules.
Keywords: fiscal procyclicality, commodity prices, natural resources, sovereign wealth funds, fiscal rules
JEL Classification: E62, H30
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation