Growth Arrested? Bonding, Job Creation, and the Health of the Connecticut Economy

15 Pages Posted: 20 Sep 2013

See all articles by Peter Gunther

Peter Gunther

Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis

William Waite

University of Connecticut - Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis (CCEA)

Fred V. Carstensen

University of Connecticut - Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis (CCEA)

Jill Coghlan

University of Connecticut - Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis (CCEA)

Date Written: September 18, 2013

Abstract

This quarter’s conventional CCEA analysis finds indications that the listless economic recovery in Connecticut is slowly strengthening, with performance approaching national growth rates. Looking ahead eight business quarters, this Outlook details three scenarios: one based on housing permits, a second that replaces housing permits with the current low prime bank rate, and a third built on a NAICS industry sector analysis.

To achieve its full potential during this period of improving indicators, the state could profitably implement some of its approved but unissued bonding to fund strategic investments. As the theoretical case is stronger for the second CCEA scenario, the low bank rate, CCEA uses it in conjunction with forward looking statements from the State Treasurer regarding the administration’s intentions to borrow and (presumably) expend funds. Governmental capital expenditures are assumed to be proportional among industries designated in Bond Commission approvals over the first half of this forecast period.

The optimum use of these approved investments will depend on implementation that acknowledges which projects have the potential to extend short- and long-term benefits, a perspective securable through a uniform scoring process.

Keywords: CT Bonding Commission, industry sectors, Prioritization scoring

JEL Classification: H11, H74, H83, R11

Suggested Citation

Gunther, Peter and Waite, William and Carstensen, Fred V. and Coghlan, Jill, Growth Arrested? Bonding, Job Creation, and the Health of the Connecticut Economy (September 18, 2013). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2327953 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2327953

Peter Gunther

Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis ( email )

368 Fairfield Road
Storrs, CT 06269-2041
United States

William Waite

University of Connecticut - Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis (CCEA) ( email )

2100 Hillside Road
Storrs, CT 06269-1240
United States

Fred V. Carstensen (Contact Author)

University of Connecticut - Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis (CCEA) ( email )

2100 Hillside Road
Storrs, CT 06269-1240
United States

Jill Coghlan

University of Connecticut - Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis (CCEA) ( email )

2100 Hillside Road
Storrs, CT 06269-1240
United States

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