Structural Breaks in Stock Returns Driven by Large Shocks

23 Pages Posted: 28 Sep 2013 Last revised: 30 Sep 2013

See all articles by Yiannis Dendramis

Yiannis Dendramis

University of Cyprus - Department of Accounting and Finance

George Kapetanios

King's College, London

Elias Tzavalis

Athens University of Economics and Business - Department of Economics

Date Written: September 26, 2012

Abstract

This paper employes a parametric model of structural breaks in the mean of stock returns which allows them to be endogenously driven by large positive or negative stock market return shocks. These shocks can be taken to reflect important market announcements, monetary policy regime shifts and/or changes in business conditions which affect stock market. The model assumes that both the timing and size of breaks are stochastic. The last property of the model distinguishes it from models suggested in the literature to capture structural breaks or regime shifts in the mean of stock returns. Implementation of the model to the US stock market indicates that the model can successfully capture structural breaks in the mean of the aggregate return of this market. Most of these breaks are triggered by negative large return shocks. The latter can be of smaller magnitude that the positive ones. Finally, the paper shows that the model can be employed to successfully forecast future expected stock returns.

Keywords: expected returns, structural breaks, large shocks, state space model, regime-shifts, threshold models

JEL Classification: E32, C13, C22

Suggested Citation

Dendramis, Yiannis and Kapetanios, George and Tzavalis, Elias, Structural Breaks in Stock Returns Driven by Large Shocks (September 26, 2012). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2331395 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2331395

Yiannis Dendramis

University of Cyprus - Department of Accounting and Finance ( email )

75 Kallipoleos Street
Nicosia CY 1678, Nicosia P.O. Box 2
Cyprus

George Kapetanios (Contact Author)

King's College, London ( email )

30 Aldwych
London, WC2B 4BG
United Kingdom
+44 20 78484951 (Phone)

Elias Tzavalis

Athens University of Economics and Business - Department of Economics ( email )

76 Patission Street
GR-10434 Athens
Greece

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