Short Interest Ratio and Equity Market Return: Causality and Impulse Response Functions

Advances in Financial Planning and Forecasting, 6, 233-247. (2015)

18 Pages Posted: 1 Oct 2013 Last revised: 19 Mar 2015

Vichet Sum

University of Maryland Eastern Shore - School of Business and Technology

Jung-Chu Lin

Takming University of Science and Technology - Department of Banking and Finance

Date Written: September 29, 2013

Abstract

This study examines the causal link between short interest ratio and equity market return and their respective impulse response functions. Based on the analysis of monthly data from 1931M6 to 2012M12, the results reveal that there is a causal link between NYSE short interest ratio and the returns on the NYSE value-weighted and NYSE smallest-cap portfolios. At the aggregated level, the returns on the NYSE value-weighted and NYSE smallest-cap portfolios significantly jump in response to shock to NYSE short interest ratio suggesting that investors who are engaged in short-selling trade, on average, are not really informed. In addition, the NYSE short interest ratio drops significantly following shocks to the returns on the NYSE value-weight, NYSE equal-weighted, NYSE largest-cap and NYSE smallest-cap portfolios suggesting investors follow the momentum in the stock market and reduce their short-selling trade activity significantly.

Keywords: short interest ratio, trading activity, stock market return

JEL Classification: G12, G14

Suggested Citation

Sum, Vichet and Lin, Jung-Chu, Short Interest Ratio and Equity Market Return: Causality and Impulse Response Functions (September 29, 2013). Advances in Financial Planning and Forecasting, 6, 233-247. (2015). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2333154 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2333154

Vichet Sum (Contact Author)

University of Maryland Eastern Shore - School of Business and Technology ( email )

2105 Kiah Hall
Princess Anne, MD 21853
United States
410-651-6531 (Phone)
410-651-6529 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.umes.edu/bma/Sum.html

Jung-Chu Lin

Takming University of Science and Technology - Department of Banking and Finance ( email )

No. 56, Sec. 1, Huanshan Rd., Neihu District,
Taipei City, 11451
Taiwan
886-2-26585801 (Phone)

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