Economic Impacts of Alternative Greenhouse Gas Emission Metrics: A Model-Based Assessment

Climatic Change, Forthcoming

24 Pages Posted: 30 Sep 2013

See all articles by Jessica Strefler

Jessica Strefler

Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)

Gunnar Luderer

Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)

Tino Aboumahboub

Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)

Elmar Kriegler

Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)

Date Written: September 30, 2013

Abstract

In this paper we study the impact of alternative metrics on short- and long-term multi-gas emission reductions and the associated global and regional economic costs. We compare global warming potentials with three different time horizons (20, 100, 500 years), global temperature change potential and global cost potentials with and without temperature overshoot. We find that the choice of metric has a relatively small impact on the CO2 budget compatible with the 2° target and therefore on global costs. However it substantially influences mid-term targets as rise or reduction of CH4 emissions in the next decades.

Though CO2 budgets are not affected much, we find changes in CO2 prices which substantially affect regional costs. Lower CO2 prices lead to more fossil fuel use and therefore higher prices. This increases profits of fossil-fuel exporters. Due to the different weights of non-CO2emissions associated with different metrics, there are large differences in nominal CO2 equivalent budgets. This may induce large shifts in emission permit trade, especially in regions where agriculture with its high associated CH4 emissions plays an important role. Furthermore it makes it important to determine CO2 equivalence budgets with respect to the chosen metric. Our results suggest that the currently used GWP100 performs well despite its conceptual simplicity.

Keywords: Greenhouse gas emission metrics, IAM, global warming potentials, climate change mitigation, emissions trading

Suggested Citation

Strefler, Jessica and Luderer, Gunnar and Aboumahboub, Tino and Kriegler, Elmar, Economic Impacts of Alternative Greenhouse Gas Emission Metrics: A Model-Based Assessment (September 30, 2013). Climatic Change, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2333464 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2333464

Jessica Strefler (Contact Author)

Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK) ( email )

Telegraphenberg
Potsdam, Brandenburg 14412
Germany

Gunnar Luderer

Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK) ( email )

Telegraphenberg
Potsdam, Brandenburg 14412
Germany

Tino Aboumahboub

Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK) ( email )

Telegraphenberg
Potsdam, Brandenburg 14412
Germany

Elmar Kriegler

Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK) ( email )

Telegraphenberg
Potsdam, Brandenburg 14412
Germany

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
18
Abstract Views
438
PlumX Metrics