The Role of 'Other Information' in Analysts’ Forecasts in Understanding Stock Return Volatility
53 Pages Posted: 3 Oct 2013
Date Written: August 16, 2013
This study proposes and validates “other information” in analysts’ forecasts as a legitimate proxy for future cash flows, and examines its incremental role in explaining stock return volatility. We suggest that “other information” contains information about fundamentals beyond that reflected in current financial statements, and reflects firms’ fundamentals on a more timely basis than dividends or earnings. The link between “other information” and volatility can be derived from a combination of the accounting version of the Campbell-Shiller model (Campbell and Shiller 1988a, 1988b; Vuolteenaho 2002) and Ohlson’s (1995) linear information dynamics. Using standardized regressions we find volatility increases when current “other information” is more uncertain, and increases more in response to unfavorable news compared to favorable news. Variance decomposition analysis shows that the variance contribution of “other information” dominates that of expected-return news. The incremental role of “other information” is at least half of the effect of earnings in explaining future volatility. The results are valid for measures of both systematic and idiosyncratic volatility, and are more pronounced for firms with poor information environments. Overall, our results highlight the importance of including “other information” as an additional cash-flow proxy in future studies of stock prices and volatility.
Keywords: Other information, analysts’ forecasts, stock return volatility, variance decomposition
JEL Classification: M41, G14, D84
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation