Mobility in an Enlarging European Union: Projections of Potential Flows from EU's Eastern Neighbors and Croatia

30 Pages Posted: 5 Oct 2013

See all articles by Michael Fertig

Michael Fertig

Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI Essen); IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Martin Kahanec

IZA Institute of Labor Economics; Central European University; Central European Labour Studies Institute

Abstract

This study evaluates potential migration flows to the European Union from its eastern neighbors and Croatia. We perform out-of-sample forecasts using an adaption of the model of Hatton (1995) to time series cross-sectional data about post-enlargement migration flows following the EU's 2004 enlargement. We consider two baseline policy scenarios, with and without accession of sending countries to the EU. Our results show that migration flows are driven by migration costs and economic conditions, but the largest effects accrue to policy variables.In terms of the predicted flows: (i) we can expect modest migration flows in case of no liberalization of labor markets and only moderately increased migration flows under liberalization; (ii) after an initial increase following liberalization, migration flows will subside to long run steady state; (iii) Ukraine will send the most migrants; and (iv) the largest inflows in absolute terms are predicted for Germany, Italy and Austria, whereas Ireland, Denmark, Finland and again Austria are the main receiving countries relative to their population.

Keywords: migration, free movement of workers, European Union, Eastern Partnership, EU enlargement, migration potential, out-of-sample forecasting

JEL Classification: F22, C23, C53

Suggested Citation

Fertig, Michael and Kahanec, Martin, Mobility in an Enlarging European Union: Projections of Potential Flows from EU's Eastern Neighbors and Croatia. IZA Discussion Paper No. 7634. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2336431

Michael Fertig (Contact Author)

Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI Essen) ( email )

Hohenzollernstrasse 1-3
45128 Essen
Germany
++49 (201) 8149-201 (Phone)
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IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Martin Kahanec

IZA Institute of Labor Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Central European University ( email )

Nador utca 9
Budapest, H-1051
Hungary

Central European Labour Studies Institute ( email )

Zvolenská 29
Bratislava, 82109
Slovakia

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