Where Are the World's Best Analysts?

10 Pages Posted: 8 Oct 2013 Last revised: 29 Nov 2013

See all articles by Campbell R. Harvey

Campbell R. Harvey

Duke University - Fuqua School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Duke Innovation & Entrepreneurship Initiative

Sam Radnor

quantPORT

Khalil Mohammed

AHL Man Systematic Strategies

William Ferreira

AHL Man Systematic Strategies

Date Written: November 25, 2013

Abstract

The World’s best equity analysts are based in Asia – these analysts are better at forecasting stock prices than their peers in the US, Europe and the UK. In comparison with the other regions, the performance of buy recommendations made by Asia analysts is superior and consistent over time. The average outperformance of buy recommendations over the medium term is over 4%. Consistent with our other research, buy recommendations outperform sells, but in contrast to Europe, sell recommendations are profitable in Japan. Within the Asia ex-Japan region, we find no significant difference in performance between emerging and developed markets.

Keywords: Analyst forecasts, analyst recommendations, earnings forecasts, Japanese analysts, Asian analysts, sell recommendations, buy recommendations, IBES recommendations

JEL Classification: M41, G14, G24, M40

Suggested Citation

Harvey, Campbell R. and Radnor, Sam and Mohammed, Khalil and Ferreira, William, Where Are the World's Best Analysts? (November 25, 2013). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2337161 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2337161

Campbell R. Harvey (Contact Author)

Duke University - Fuqua School of Business ( email )

Box 90120
Durham, NC 27708-0120
United States
919-660-7768 (Phone)
919-660-8030 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Duke Innovation & Entrepreneurship Initiative ( email )

215 Morris St., Suite 300
Durham, NC 27701
United States

Sam Radnor

quantPORT ( email )

Vintners Place
68 Upper Thames Street
London, EC4V 3BJ
United Kingdom

Khalil Mohammed

AHL Man Systematic Strategies ( email )

Riverbank House
2 Swan Lane
London, EC4R 3AD
United Kingdom
+44 207 144 1291 (Phone)

William Ferreira

AHL Man Systematic Strategies ( email )

Riverbank House
2 Swan Lane
London, EC4R 3AD
Great Britain
+442071441284 (Phone)

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