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Modelling Production Cost Scenarios for Biofuels and Fossil Fuels in Europe

35 Pages Posted: 10 Oct 2013  

Gunter W. Festel

Festel Capital; ETH Zürich - Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC)

Martin Würmseher

ETH Zürich

Christian Rammer

Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) - Industrial Economics and International Management Research

Eckhard Boles

Goethe University Frankfurt

Martin Bellof

Autodisplay Biotech GmbH

Date Written: September 15, 2013

Abstract

This paper presents the results of a calculation model for biofuel production costs in 2015 and 2020 based on raw material price projections and considering scale and learning effects. Distinguishing six types of biofuels, the paper finds that scale economies and learning effects are critical for 2nd generation biofuels to become competitive. In case these effects can be utilized, cost saving potentials for 2nd generation biofuels are significant.

Keywords: Biofuels, Production Cost Scenarios, Raw Material Price Projection, Conversion Costs

JEL Classification: L25, L26, J24

Suggested Citation

Festel, Gunter W. and Würmseher, Martin and Rammer, Christian and Boles, Eckhard and Bellof, Martin, Modelling Production Cost Scenarios for Biofuels and Fossil Fuels in Europe (September 15, 2013). ZEW - Centre for European Economic Research Discussion Paper No. 13-075. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2337990 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2337990

Gunter W. Festel

Festel Capital ( email )

Mettlenstrasse 14
Fuerigen
Switzerland

ETH Zürich - Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC) ( email )

ETH-Zentrum
Zurich, CH-8092
United States

Martin Würmseher

ETH Zürich ( email )

Zürichbergstrasse 18
8092 Zurich, CH-1015
Switzerland

Christian Rammer (Contact Author)

Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) - Industrial Economics and International Management Research ( email )

P.O. Box 10 34 43
L 7,1 D-68161 Mannheim
Germany

Eckhard Boles

Goethe University Frankfurt ( email )

Grüneburgplatz 1
Frankfurt am Main, 60323
Germany

Martin Bellof

Autodisplay Biotech GmbH ( email )

Merowingerplatz 1
Düsseldorf, 40225
Germany

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