Nominal Exchange Rate Stationarity and Long-Term Bond Returns

88 Pages Posted: 16 Oct 2013 Last revised: 17 Jan 2016

Hanno N. Lustig

Stanford Graduate School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Andreas Stathopoulos

University of Washington

Adrien Verdelhan

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: January 2016

Abstract

We derive a novel test for nominal exchange rate stationarity that exploits the forward-looking information in long maturity bond prices. When nominal exchange rates are stationary, no arbitrage implies that the return on the foreign long bond expressed in dollars is identical to the return on the U.S. bond. In the data, we do not find significant differences in long-term government bond risk premia in dollars across G10 countries, contrary to the large differences in risk premia at short maturities documented in the FX carry trade literature. Moreover, in most of the cases examined, we cannot reject that realized foreign and domestic long-term bond returns in dollars are the same, as if nominal exchange rates were stationary in levels, contrary to the academic consensus.

Keywords: exchange rate stationarity, carry trade, UIP, currency risk premia, bond risk premia

Suggested Citation

Lustig, Hanno N. and Stathopoulos, Andreas and Verdelhan, Adrien, Nominal Exchange Rate Stationarity and Long-Term Bond Returns (January 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2340547 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2340547

Hanno N. Lustig (Contact Author)

Stanford Graduate School of Business ( email )

Stanford GSB
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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Andreas Stathopoulos

University of Washington ( email )

Seattle, WA 98195
United States

Adrien Verdelhan

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management ( email )

77 Massachusetts Ave.
E62-416
Cambridge, MA 02142
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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