Macroevolution of Technology

Evolution: Development within Big History, Evolutionary and World-System Paradigms. Edited by: Leonid E. Grinin, Аndrey V. Korotayev. Volgograd: ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House, 2013. Pp. 143-178

36 Pages Posted: 18 Oct 2013

See all articles by Leonid Grinin

Leonid Grinin

National Research University Higher School of Economics; Eurasian Center for Big History & System Forecasting; Volgograd Center for Social Research

Anton Grinin

Volgograd Center for Social Research

Date Written: September 1, 2013

Abstract

What determines the transition of a society from one level of development to another? One of the most fundamental causes is the global technological transformations. Among all major technological breakthroughs in history the most important are the three production revolutions: 1) the Agrarian Revolution; 2) the Industrial Revolution and 3) the Scientific-Information Revolution which will transform into the Cybernetic one.

The article introduces the Theory of Production Revolutions. This is a new explanatory paradigm which is of value when analyzing causes and trends of global shifts in historical process. The article describes the course of technological transformations in history and demonstrates a possible application of the theory to explain the present and forthcoming technological changes. The authors argue that the third production revolution that started in the 1950s and which they call the Cybernetic one, in the coming decades, that is in the 2030s and 2040s, will get a new impetus and enter its final stage – the epoch of (self)controllable systems. There are given certain forecasts concerning the development in such spheres as medicine, biotechnologies and nanotechnologies in the coming decades (the 2010s-2060s).

Keywords: production revolution, production principle, historical process, the Agrarian Revolution, the Industrial Revolution, the Cybernetic Revolution, controllable systems, biotechnology, medicine, nanotechnology, technology

Suggested Citation

Grinin, Leonid and Grinin, Anton, Macroevolution of Technology (September 1, 2013). Evolution: Development within Big History, Evolutionary and World-System Paradigms. Edited by: Leonid E. Grinin, Аndrey V. Korotayev. Volgograd: ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House, 2013. Pp. 143-178 . Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2341461

Leonid Grinin (Contact Author)

National Research University Higher School of Economics ( email )

Myasnitskaya street, 20
Moscow, Moscow 119017
Russia

Eurasian Center for Big History & System Forecasting ( email )

Rozhdestvenka 12
Moscow, 107031
Russia

HOME PAGE: http://www.sociostudies.org/ecbsf/

Volgograd Center for Social Research ( email )

Russia, 400079, Volgograd, Kirova street, 143
Volgograd, 400079
Russia

HOME PAGE: http://www.socionauki.ru/authors/grinin_l/

Anton Grinin

Volgograd Center for Social Research ( email )

Russia, 400079, Volgograd, Bystrove St. 82-53
Volgograd, 400079
Russia

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