The VIX, the Variance Premium and Stock Market Volatility

36 Pages Posted: 19 Oct 2013

See all articles by Geert Bekaert

Geert Bekaert

Columbia University - Columbia Business School, Finance

Marie Hoerova

European Central Bank (ECB); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Multiple version iconThere are 4 versions of this paper

Date Written: October 1, 2013

Abstract

We decompose the squared VIX index, derived from US S&P 500 options prices, into the conditional variance of stock returns and the equity variance premium. We evaluate a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models to produce an accurate measure of the conditional variance. We then examine the predictive power of the VIX and its two components for stock market returns, economic activity and financial instability. The variance premium predicts stock returns while the conditional stock market variance predicts economic activity and has a relatively higher predictive power for financial instability than does the variance premium.

Keywords: option implied volatility, realized volatility, VIX, variance risk premium, risk aversion, stock return predictability, risk-return trade-off, economic uncertainty, financial instability

JEL Classification: C22, C52, G12, E32

Suggested Citation

Bekaert, Geert and Hoerova, Marie, The VIX, the Variance Premium and Stock Market Volatility (October 1, 2013). Netspar Discussion Paper No. 10/2013-035, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2342200 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2342200

Geert Bekaert (Contact Author)

Columbia University - Columbia Business School, Finance ( email )

NY
United States

Marie Hoerova

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.mariehoerova.net

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

London
United Kingdom

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