Conflict and Social and Political Preferences: Evidence from World War II and Civil Conflict in 35 European Countries

Abstract

This paper uses new micro-level evidence from a nationally representative survey of 39,500 individuals in 35 countries to shed light on how individual experiences of conflict shape political and social preferences. The investigation covers World War II and recent civil conflict. Overwhelmingly, the results point to the negative and enduring legacy of war-related violence on political trust and perceived effectiveness of national institutions, although the effects are heterogeneous across different types (external vs. internal) and outcomes (victory vs. defeat) of conflict. Conflict spurs collective action, but of a dark nature, one associated with further erosion of social and political trust.

Keywords: Conflict, social capital, state capacity, Europe, Caucasus, Central Asia

JEL Classification: N24, O57, Z13