Disequilibrium Adjustment and the Rate of Tropical Deforestation

32 Pages Posted: 22 Oct 2013

See all articles by Emma Aisbett

Emma Aisbett

ANU - School of Regulation and Global Governance

Patrick Doupe

Australian National University (ANU) - Crawford School of Public Policy

Luca Tacconi

Australian National University (ANU) - Crawford School of Public Policy

Date Written: March 19, 2013

Abstract

Tropical deforestation has been one of the most significant global environmental changes of recent decades and has spurned a substantial academic literature. Despite this, the most basic theoretical predictions — such as the role of income and population growth in driving forest changes — fail to be consistently confirmed in the empirical literature. We argue that part of this failure lies with the implicit assumption of instantaneous adjustment of forest cover to changes in determining variables; and we use dynamic panel data analysis to provide evidence that the agreement between theory and empirics can be substantially improved by paying more attention to disequilibrium adjustment processes. Additionally, our results suggest an important role for ethnic fractionalization in deterring deforestation but no evidence of an effect of corruption.

Keywords: tropical deforestation, corruption, ethnic fractionalization, disequilibrium adjustment, error correction model

Suggested Citation

Aisbett, Emma and Doupe, Patrick and Tacconi, Luca, Disequilibrium Adjustment and the Rate of Tropical Deforestation (March 19, 2013). Crawford School Research Paper No. 13-10. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2343457 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2343457

Emma Aisbett (Contact Author)

ANU - School of Regulation and Global Governance ( email )

Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601
Australia

Patrick Doupe

Australian National University (ANU) - Crawford School of Public Policy ( email )

ANU College of Asia and the Pacific
J.G. Crawford Building, #132, Lennox Crossing
Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200
Australia

Luca Tacconi

Australian National University (ANU) - Crawford School of Public Policy ( email )

7 Liversidge Street
Lennox Crossing
Canberra, ACT 0200
Australia

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