Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections

Abstract

Changes in the size and structure of human populations are conventionally modeled and projected by stratifying the population by age and sex. Here we present new approaches, which use multidimensional demographic methods to add educational attainment as a third dimension in studying population dynamics. In virtually all societies, better-educated adults have lower mortality rates and their children better chances of survival. Almost universally too, women with higher levels of education have fewer children, through choice and higher access to birth control. Because of these pervasive differentials, scenarios of potential improvements in education have significant implications for future population growth. The projection of future educational attainment distributions is of significant interest in its own right as well, as education has a great influence on almost every aspect of progress in human development.

Keywords: human development, developing countries, demographics, human development index, global South, HDI, development cooperation