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Is China on Track to Comply with Its 2020 Copenhagen Carbon Intensity Commitment?

39 Pages Posted: 30 Oct 2013 Last revised: 30 Mar 2014

Yuan Yang

Tsinghua University

Junjie Zhang

Duke Kunshan University

Can Wang

Tsinghua University - School of Environment

Date Written: March 29, 2014

Abstract

In the 2009 Copenhagen Accord, China agreed to slash its carbon intensity (carbon dioxide emissions/GDP) by 40% to 45% from the 2005 level by 2020. We assess whether China can achieve the target under the business-as-usual scenario by forecasting its emissions from energy consumption. Our preferred model shows that China's carbon intensity is projected to decline by only 33%. The results imply that China needs additional mitigation effort to comply with the Copenhagen commitment. In addition, China's baseline emissions are projected to increase by 56% in the next decade (2011-2020). The emission growth is more than triple the emission reductions that the European Union and the United States have committed to in the same period.

Keywords: climate change, carbon dioxide emissions, China, spatial econometrics

JEL Classification: Q43, Q54, C53

Suggested Citation

Yang, Yuan and Zhang, Junjie and Wang, Can, Is China on Track to Comply with Its 2020 Copenhagen Carbon Intensity Commitment? (March 29, 2014). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2346516 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2346516

Yuan Yang

Tsinghua University ( email )

Beijing, 100084
China

Junjie Zhang (Contact Author)

Duke Kunshan University ( email )

No. 8 Duke Avenue
Kunshan, 215316
China
+86 512 36657068 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://junjiezhang.org

Can Wang

Tsinghua University - School of Environment ( email )

China

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