Employment and the Business Cycle

27 Pages Posted: 31 Oct 2013

See all articles by Marcelle Chauvet

Marcelle Chauvet

University of California Riverside

Jeremy Piger

University of Oregon - Department of Economics

Date Written: October 2013


This paper investigates the differences in the cyclical dynamics in employment on nonā€agricultural payroll (ENAP) and total civilian employment (TCE), and the implications for monitoring US business cycles in real time. We find that employment measures have diverged considerably around the last three recessions and subsequent recoveries. This significantly impacts identification of turning points. Models that use TCE are more in line with the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) recession dating, and deliver faster call of troughs in real time, whereas models that include ENAP series yield delays in signaling troughs, especially the most recent ones.

Suggested Citation

Chauvet, Marcelle and Piger, Jeremy M., Employment and the Business Cycle (October 2013). The Manchester School, Vol. 81, pp. 16-42, 2013. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2347783 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/manc.12026

Marcelle Chauvet (Contact Author)

University of California Riverside ( email )

900 University Avenue
4136 Sproul Hall
Riverside, CA 92521
United States
(951) 827-1587 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/marcellechauvet/

Jeremy M. Piger

University of Oregon - Department of Economics ( email )

Eugene, OR 97403
United States

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