Early Quantitative Fundamental Analysis: Forecasting Insured Losses Due to Catastrophes

25 Pages Posted: 15 Nov 2013 Last revised: 23 Jun 2017

Date Written: December 15, 1969

Abstract

Lacking computers, financial analysis of investments prior to the sixties was seldom quantitative. Toward the end of the sixties, time-sharing computers with limited memory were available. Basic statistical analysis was feasible, and a few financial analysts with quantitative training began to try to gain an advantage over their colleagues by extracting what they viewed as private information from public data. This paper presents an example from 1969, an analysis of catastrophic insurance losses. Following Hurricane Betsy, that devastated Florida in 1965, many professional investors were fearful of catastrophic losses adversely impacting insurance stocks. This analysis allowed one buy-side boutique research firm to put Hurricane Betsy in perspective.

Keywords: fundamental investment analysis, stock analysis, insurance, quantitative investment analysis

JEL Classification: G10, G11, G22, G32

Suggested Citation

Ferguson, Robert, Early Quantitative Fundamental Analysis: Forecasting Insured Losses Due to Catastrophes (December 15, 1969). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2353557 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2353557

Robert Ferguson (Contact Author)

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