State‐Dependent Threshold Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models

20 Pages Posted: 22 Nov 2013

See all articles by Michael Dueker

Michael Dueker

Russell Investments

Zacharias Psaradakis

University of London - Economics, Mathematics and Statistics

Martín Sola

Universidad Torcuato Di Tella; University of London - Economics, Mathematics and Statistics

Fabio Spagnolo

Brunel University London - Economics and Finance

Date Written: December 2013

Abstract

In this article, we consider extensions of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models to situations where the threshold is a function of variables that affect the separation of regimes of the time series under consideration. Our specification is motivated by the observation that unusually high/low values for an economic variable may sometimes be best thought of in relative terms. State‐dependent contemporaneous‐threshold STAR and logistic STAR models are introduced and discussed. These models are also used to investigate the dynamics of US short‐term interest rates, where the threshold is allowed to be a function of past output growth and inflation.

JEL Classification: C22, E43

Suggested Citation

Dueker, Michael and Psaradakis, Zacharias and Sola, Martín and Spagnolo, Fabio, State‐Dependent Threshold Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models (December 2013). Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 75, Issue 6, pp. 835-854, 2013. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2358222 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2012.00719.x

Michael Dueker (Contact Author)

Russell Investments ( email )

909 A Street
Tacoma, WA 98402
United States

HOME PAGE: http://sites.google.com/site/michaeldueker

Zacharias Psaradakis

University of London - Economics, Mathematics and Statistics ( email )

7-15 Gresse Street
London, WC1E 7HX
United Kingdom
+44 20 7631 6415 (Phone)
+44 20 7631 6416 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.econ.bbk.ac.uk/faculty/psaradakis/

Martín Sola

Universidad Torcuato Di Tella ( email )

Minones 2159
1428 Buenos Aires, 1428
Argentina
5411 4784 0080 (Phone)
5411 4784 9807 (Fax)

University of London - Economics, Mathematics and Statistics ( email )

Malet Street
London, WC1E 7HX
United Kingdom
+44 20 7631 6411 (Phone)
+44 20 7631 6416 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.econ.bbk.ac.uk/faculty/sola/

Fabio Spagnolo

Brunel University London - Economics and Finance ( email )

Uxbridge UB8 3PH
United Kingdom
+44 1895 816383 (Phone)
+44 1895 203303 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.brunel.ac.uk/depts/ecf/Staff/SpagnoloF/Main.htm

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