Off the Golden Fetters: Examining Interwar Carry Trade and Momentum
60 Pages Posted: 23 Nov 2013
Date Written: November 22, 2013
We study the properties of carry trade and momentum returns in the interwar period, 1921:1-1936:12. We find that currencies with higher interest rates outperform currencies with lower interest rates by about 7% per annum, consistent with estimates from modern samples, while a momentum strategy that is long past winner and short past loser currencies rewards an average annual excess return of around 7% in the interwar sample, larger than its modern counterparts. On the grounds that the interwar period represents rare events better than modern samples, we provide evidence unfavorable to the rare disaster based explanation for the returns to the carry trade and momentum. Global FX volatility risk, however, turns out to account for the carry trade return in the interwar sample as well as in modern samples.
Keywords: Interwar, Carry, Momentum, Risk Premia, Rare Disasters, FX Volatility Risk
JEL Classification: G12, G15, F31
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation