Referenda Outcomes and the Influence of Polls: A Social Network Feedback Process

FEUNL Working Paper Series No. 578

43 Pages Posted: 26 Nov 2013

See all articles by Joao Amaro de Matos

Joao Amaro de Matos

Nova School of Business and Economics

Ariel Guerreiro

Universidade do Porto - Departamento de Física e Astronomia

Date Written: November 15, 2013

Abstract

This paper proposes a model to explain the differences between outcomes of referenda and the voting trends suggested by polls. Two main effects are at stake. First, the evolution of the voters' attitudes is conditional on the public information made available to them. Second, the predisposition toward abstention among individuals within each voting group may be different. Our model describes how these two aspects of decision making may interact, showing how publicly available information may amplify the distinct tendency toward abstention between both groups and thus affect the outcome of the referendum.

Suggested Citation

Amaro de Matos, Joao and Negrão da Silva Guerreiro, Ariel, Referenda Outcomes and the Influence of Polls: A Social Network Feedback Process (November 15, 2013). FEUNL Working Paper Series No. 578. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2359391 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2359391

Joao Amaro de Matos (Contact Author)

Nova School of Business and Economics ( email )

Campus de Campolide
Lisbon, 1099-038
Portugal

HOME PAGE: http://docentes.fe.unl.pt/~amatos

Ariel Negrão da Silva Guerreiro

Universidade do Porto - Departamento de Física e Astronomia ( email )

Physics and Astronomy Department
Rua do Campo Alegre, S/N
Porto, Porto 4169-007
Portugal

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
12
Abstract Views
304
PlumX Metrics