Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: Leading Indicators vs. Probit Estimation

95 Pages Posted: 2 Dec 2013

See all articles by Stefan Jansen

Stefan Jansen

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: April 2, 2002

Abstract

This paper aims at identifying key empirical regularities characterizing the onset of a currency crisis that might be suitable for early warning purposes and proceeds by providing analysis and empirical tests of economic and financial variables both in-sample and out-of-sample in order to assess their performance as leading indicators of a speculative attack. Two distinct methodologies are compared and implications for the theory of currency crises and economic policies to their prevention will be investigated in the process.

Suggested Citation

Jansen, Stefan, Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: Leading Indicators vs. Probit Estimation (April 2, 2002). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2362034 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2362034

Stefan Jansen (Contact Author)

affiliation not provided to SSRN

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