Sovereign Defaults by Currency Denomination
46 Pages Posted: 29 Jun 2014 Last revised: 7 Apr 2015
Date Written: December 30, 2014
This paper explores the drivers of sovereign defaults in 100 countries over the period 1996-2012. We build a new data set of sovereign defaults and find that default events on local and foreign currency bonds are equally likely. However, governments default under different economic and financial conditions depending on the currency in which bonds are issued. The explained variation in default probability rises from 43% to 62% when we account for differences in currency denomination. We also provide evidence that global factors and market sentiment, which are known to drive sovereign spreads, do not help explain the probability of sovereign default. Hence, these factors appear to affect the price of sovereign credit risk, but not the risk itself.
Keywords: Sovereign Default, Local Currency Debt, Foreign Currency Debt, International Bonds
JEL Classification: F31, F33, F34, F41, H63
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation