Basins at Risk – Predicting International River Basin Conflict and Cooperation

Abstract

Growing demands for water combined with supply constraints may lead to an increased potential for international water conflicts, because many of the world’s freshwater systems cut across national boundaries. Which international river basins are likely to experience greater conflict risks or, conversely, more cooperation? What are the factors that increase or decrease conflict risk (cooperation)? We use prediction and forecasting approaches to address these questions and compare the results with findings of an earlier "basins at risk" study. Whereas the earlier study identified twenty-nine basins at risk, our study identifies forty-four such river basins. It also arrives at different findings with respect to key determinants of river basin conflict and cooperation. The proposed analytical approach can help to increase the robustness of explanatory models, also in other areas of environmental politics. It could also make research findings more policy-relevant by moving from ex-post analysis to in-sample prediction and out-of-sample forecasting.

Keywords: Conflict, cooperation, Prediction, Forecasting, International River Basins, Water