A Scale of Risk

Risk Analysis, DOI: 10.1111/risa.12150

20 Pages Posted: 23 Dec 2013

See all articles by Paolo Gardoni

Paolo Gardoni

Texas A&M University - Zachry Department of Civil Engineering

Colleen Murphy

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Date Written: December 20, 2013

Abstract

This article proposes a conceptual framework for ranking the relative gravity of diverse risks. This framework identifies the moral considerations that should inform the evaluation and comparison of diverse risks. A common definition of risk includes two dimensions: the probability of occurrence and the associated consequences of a set of hazardous scenarios. This article first expands this definition to include a third dimension: the source of a risk. The source of a risk refers to the agents involved in the creation or maintenance of a risk and captures a central moral concern about risks. Then, a scale of risk is proposed to categorize risks along a multidimensional ranking, based on a comparative evaluation of the consequences, probability, and source of a given risk. A risk is ranked higher on the scale the larger the consequences, the greater the probability, and the more morally culpable the source. The information from the proposed comparative evaluation of risks can inform the selection of priorities for risk mitigation.

Keywords: risk comparison; risk evaluation; risk

Suggested Citation

Gardoni, Paolo and Murphy, Colleen, A Scale of Risk (December 20, 2013). Risk Analysis, DOI: 10.1111/risa.12150, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2371068

Paolo Gardoni

Texas A&M University - Zachry Department of Civil Engineering ( email )

Langford Building A
798 Ross St.
College Station, TX 77843-3137
United States
(979) 845 - 4340 (Phone)
(979) 845 - 6554 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://ceprofs.tamu.edu/pgardoni/Contact%2010-13-05.htm

Colleen Murphy (Contact Author)

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign ( email )

College of Law
504 East Pennsylvania Ave
Champaign, IL 61820
United States

HOME PAGE: http://drcolleenmurphy.com

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