Growth in Densely Populated Asia: Implications for Primary Product Exporters

Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies (APPS), Forthcoming

15 Pages Posted: 23 Dec 2013 Last revised: 8 Oct 2014

See all articles by Kym Anderson

Kym Anderson

University of Adelaide - Centre for International Economic Studies (CIES); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Australian National University

Anna Strutt

University of Waikato

Date Written: December 1, 2013

Abstract

Economic growth and integration in Asia is rapidly increasing the global economic importance of the region. To the extent that this growth continues and is strongest in natural resource-poor Asian economies, it will add to global demand for imports of primary products, to the benefit of (especially nearby) resource abundant countries. How will global production, consumption and trade patterns change by 2030 in the course of such economic developments and structural changes? We address this question using the GTAP model and Version 8.1 of the 2007 GTAP database, together with supplementary data from a range of sources, to support projections of the global economy from 2007 to 2030 under various scenarios. Factor endowments and real gross domestic product are assumed to grow at exogenous rates, and trade-related policies are kept unchanged to generate a core baseline, which is compared with an alternative slower growth scenario.We also consider the impact of several policy changes aimed at increasing China’s agricultural self-sufficiency relative to the 2030 baseline. Policy implications for countries of the Asia-Pacific region are drawn out in the final section.

Keywords: Asian economic growth, global economy-wide model projections, booming sector economics, food security, bilateral trade

Suggested Citation

Anderson, Kym and Strutt, Anna, Growth in Densely Populated Asia: Implications for Primary Product Exporters (December 1, 2013). Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies (APPS), Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2371149 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2371149

Kym Anderson (Contact Author)

University of Adelaide - Centre for International Economic Studies (CIES) ( email )

School of Economics
Adelaide SA 5005
Australia
+61 8 8313 4712 (Phone)
+61 8 8223 1460 (Fax)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Australian National University ( email )

Arndt-Corden Dept of Economics
Coombs Building
Canberra, AK ACT 2600
Australia
+61 8 8313 4712 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://publicpolicy.anu.edu.au/crawford_people/content/staff/acde/kanderson.php

Anna Strutt

University of Waikato ( email )

Te Raupapa
Private Bag 3105
Hamilton, 3240
New Zealand

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