What Has Been the Impact of the 2008 Crisis on Firms’ Default?

38 Pages Posted: 3 Jan 2014

See all articles by Denis Fougère

Denis Fougère

National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) - National School for Statistical and Economic Administration (ENSAE); National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS); IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Cecile Golfier

Banque de France

Guillaume Horny

Banque de France

Elisabeth Kremp

Banque de France; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: January 2014

Abstract

The acceleration of the firm failure rate in France between 2008 and 2010 was preceded by a surge in the number of firms’ creations in 2003-2004.

Therefore, identifying the impact of the 2008 crisis requires to distinguish, among the failures occurring over the period, those resulting from the crisis from hose mechanically stemming from firm demography, as we know that many firms disappear during their first years of existence.

Our study was conducted using the universe of firms created between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2007.

This sample is extracted from the database managed by the Companies Direction at Banque de France. The lack of complete information on firms created before 2000 led us to restrict the sample to newly created firms, but the period under study is long enough to encompass the increase in the number of firm creation in 2003-2004. The originality of this study lies both in the sample size and in the richness of the data used.

Our statistical analysis focuses on the period between the date of the firm creation and of its first failure. The impact of the crisis is estimated using a flexible duration model, stratified according to the date of creation. The model takes into account the effects of the company age at the failure date, its industry, its size and the sequence of dates associated with its payment incidents on trade bills.

We examine more specifically the failure rates in four industries: retail trade, transport, manufacturing and construction. The proportion of failures due to the crisis varies greatly across these four sectors. On average, the impact of the 2008 crisis has been of 27% in retail trade, 35% in transports, 43% in manufacturing and 46% in construction. Younger firms, namely those created in 2006 and 2007, were the most affected by the crisis.

Keywords: firms’ bankruptcy, economic crisis, survival, duration model

JEL Classification: G33, C41, D22

Suggested Citation

Fougere, Denis and Golfier, Cecile and Horny, Guillaume and Kremp, Elisabeth M., What Has Been the Impact of the 2008 Crisis on Firms’ Default? (January 2014). Banque de France Working Paper No. 463, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2373939 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2373939

Denis Fougere (Contact Author)

National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) - National School for Statistical and Economic Administration (ENSAE) ( email )

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National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS)

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IZA Institute of Labor Economics

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Cecile Golfier

Banque de France ( email )

Paris
France

Guillaume Horny

Banque de France ( email )

Paris
France

Elisabeth M. Kremp

Banque de France ( email )

43-2510 DESS
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75049 Paris Cedex 01, 75049
France
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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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