Posterior-Hacking: Selective Reporting Invalidates Bayesian Results Also

Abstract

Many believe that Bayesian statistics are robust to p-hacking. Many are wrong. In this paper I show with simulations and actual data that the two Bayesian approaches that have been proposed within Psychology, Bayesian inference and Bayes factors, are as invalidated by selective reporting as p-values are. Going Bayesian may offer some benefits, providing a solution to selective reporting is not one of them. Required disclosure is the only solution.

Keywords: p-hacking, publication bias, selective reporting, Bayesian, chronological rejuvenation